NFL Thursday (Game 2): NY Giants at Dallas
NY Giants at Dallas
Line: Cowboys -9
O/U: 45.5
Analysis:
The 7-3 Cowboys played one of their best games in years last week, demolishing the shipwrecked Vikings by 37 points in what (incredibly) was the storied franchise’s most lopsided road win ever in 63 seasons. Dallas’ offense now appears to be clicking on all cylinders, scoring a whopping 117 points in their last three games.
Typically, when any team receives overwhelmingly positive attention, that’s an ideal situation to fade. The handicapping corollary is — popular betting favorites fawned over by ESPN must lay extra points due to gullible public perceptions, creating value on the underdog. Multiply this by 2X, since the opposite perception now applies to the NY Giants, coming off their worst game of the season last week in a humiliating home loss to Detroit.
The Giants weren’t even in that game most of the way. It was a pathetic display for a team trying to gain respect and prove they’re a legitimate playoff contender (which the Giants aren’t--based on that lack of effort.
The Giants’ Achilles heel is their dismal passing game, which ranks #28th in the league. Fortunately for the well-coached G-Men, they’ve had superstar RB S. Barkley to carry the heavy load, and also credit an overachieving defense that’s played pretty well in most games. But as we saw in the Lions’ upset last week, once Barkley is neutered, the whole team becomes a filthy mutt.
Forecast:
Our prediction is that Dallas — with a far better defense than the Giants have seen in most games — will swarm on Barkley like nasty wasps once again and force inept QB Jones into throwing the ball. That’s a game plan the Cowboys will dream of, since it’s unlikely the one-dimensional Giants have enough weapons to keep up with Dallas.
Trends also favor the Cowboys. Dallas is 4-1 SU at home and 3-0 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Cowboys are also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 NFC East home games. Dallas also plays well coming off wins. The Cowboys are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games coming off a victory. Oh, and Dallas has won 10/11 vs. the Giants.
On any other day, we would NOT lay this many points. But we see a possible ass-kicking here by the Cowboys on Thanksgiving at home. When they score, we don’t think Dallas lets up and takes it easy. We expect the Cowboys to roll up the score and head into December (when they’ve usually faded like stale turkey leftovers after thanksgiving) on a roll.
We’ll even go so far as to put up a prediction. Final Score: Dallas 37, NY Giants 16
The Pick:
Dallas Cowboys -9
