NFL Thursday (Game 3): New England at Minnesota

NFL Nov 24, 2022

New England at Minnesota
Line: Vikings -2.5
O/U: 42.5


We're staring at our computer screen right now, and see Minnesota is just -2.5. We don’t get it. When we saw the opening line was Minnesota -3 on Sunday night, we thought -- bet this game early because the line is moving to Vikings -3.5

We are usually right about predicting line movements, but blew this one.  Now, it’s -2.5.  That's a steal if you can still find it at or elsewhere.  Get that number if you can!

Let’s also not get ahead of ourselves here. Yes, we're betting on the Vikings. The 37-point home loss a few days ago should ignite a much better effort this week. No doubt, Minnesota mailed in the last game once they fell behind by a couple of scores and saved themselves for this matchup just four days later.

Back-to-back home games will also help. The Vikings will certainly win the NFC Central barring a complete collapse, so the loss to Dallas by 3 points or 37 all measures the same “L” in the standings.

Meanwhile, New England was taken down to the final seconds at home in a game they would have lost if the Jets’ passing offense wasn’t so inept. A fluke punt return gave them the win, in a lackluster effort, though let’s credit the Pats’ defense. New England failed to score an offensive touchdown in that game and coming off a huge emotional victory versus their rival, they now go on the road on a short week, with no apparent corrections made to the offensive scheme. In the Patriots’ last two games, they’ve had ten 3-and-outs on 24 drives. That’s a horrid figure, especially against the Colts and Jets back-to-back. Mac Jones’ offense racked up a pitiful 209 yards in the Colts game and then 297 last week, both subpar numbers. They also faced either 1st of 2nd-year QBs in each of their last four games.

One concern is — Minnesota plays notoriously close games, one reason this line is less than a FG. But Minnesota at 8-2 does seem overdue for a showcase came, and this could be it given all the factors.

We should also credit the Vikings for playing three winning teams in a row (Washington-Buffalo-Dallas) so New England could be a step down in class, even though the Patriots can be proud of their 6-4 record. we're jumping on the bargain price with the Vikings laying a small number.

The Pick:

Minnesota Vikings -2.5