NFL Turkey Day Predictions

NFL Nov 24, 2021

Three games are being playing on Thursday, which is Thanksgiving Day in the USA.  Here's several predictions from alternate sources on the outcomes of each game.

Note:  All odds and totals are from SPREADS.CA.

Chicago at Detroit

Pro Football Network: Lions 13, Bears 10
Ben Rolfe writes: "It is hard to know what to expect from the first of the three Thanksgiving games. We could see any combination of Jared Goff, Justin Fields, Tim Boyle, Andy Dalton, or David Blough on the field. This might be the Lions’ best chance to win a game in the remainder of the year, but their defense is likely going to have to be the reason they do so."
Sportsnaut: Bears 21, Lions 17
Matt Johnson writes: "Justin Fields’ status for this game is uncertain, but it doesn’t look promising with the Bears on a quick turnaround. With that said, the Lions have the worst record in the NFL for a reason. This should be a rare victory for Chicago."
Draft Kings: Take the Lions with the points against Bears in Week 12
Teddy Ricketson writes: "This will be the second time this season that these teams have played as the divisional opponents met in Week 4 and the Bears came away with the 24-14 victory. Fields was the quarterback for the Bears but he left their Week 11 game with an injury and wasn’t able to return. Let’s get wild to start the Thanksgiving slate and see the Lions cover and win their first game of the year. Over his last two games, D’Andre Swift has been playing out of his mind with 266 rushing yards and a touchdown."
Picks and Parlays: Lions 23, Bears 20
It writes: "Chicago WR Allen Robinson (hamstring) missed Sunday’s loss and is listed as questionable for this game. Despite all of the losing, the Lions have continued to play hard for rookie head coach Dan Campbell. Take Detroit to get into the win column with a win on Thanksgiving Day."
The Game Day: Bears 24, Lions 17
Anthony Cervino writes: "Expect the Bears to exit Detroit with a holiday win. Not only have the Bears won six of their past seven games over the Lions, but what the Lions do best on offense — which is run the football — is what the Bears do best on defense. Chicago’s defense should smother the Lions while their offense continues to grow under Fields."
Sportsnaut: Lions 24, Bears 20
Vincent Frank writes: "This is one game that the Lions should be able to stay competitive in, especially given Justin Fields’ struggles in Chicago and the issues surrounding head coach Matt Nagy. Look for a holiday treat for the home fans who brave bad football during Thanksgiving."

Las Vegas at Dallas

Pro Football Network: Cowboys 21, Raiders 17
Ben Rolfe writes: "Both of these offenses looked flat-out bad this week. What should have been an exciting game between two playoff contenders now feels like it is a case of whoever does not play worse on offense will win. The Cowboys could be without both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, but they should still have too much for the Raiders."
Sportsnaut: Cowboys 37, Raiders 27
Vincent Frank writes: "Both teams are coming off ugly Week 11 losses and have to play Thanksgiving on a short week. Despite Dallas being without Amari Cooper (COVID-19 protocols) and potentially CeeDee Lamb (concussion), we're going with the home team here. Simply put, the Raiders are in the midst of their typical second half meltdown."
The Game Day: Cowboys 34, Raiders 24
Anthony Cervino writes: "The key to this game for both teams will be defense. While the Raiders have played well at times, they give up points at a 25.6 PPG rate. If the Raiders are not at their best and fail to pressure Dak Prescott, they’ll be in for a long day. The Dallas defense, surprisingly, is ranks No. 10 in fewest points surrendered per game at a 21.7 rate. They are also fifth in takeaways with 17. If the Cowboys show up on both sides of the ball and play the way they have been (outside of the Broncos loss), they will have no issues pulling out a convincing win on Thanksgiving."
Draft Kings: Take the Raiders with the points against Cowboys in Week 12
Chet Gresham writes: "The Cowboys will look to bounce back at home on Thanksgiving day. If the Raiders weren’t playing so poorly at the moment, I’d be all in on them to win this game, but as it is, I think seven points is too much to give this week. The Cowboys will be without Amari Cooper and there is a good chance they’ll be without CeeDee Lamb. Ezekiel Elliott is playing through a knee injury at the moment and this quick turnaround is going to be tough on the team. I like the Cowboys to win, but the Raiders to keep it close."
Fansided: Cowboys 31, Raiders 17
Peter Panacy writes: "Las Vegas’ offense has gone flat over the last three weeks, having scored just 16 points in Week 9 against the New York Giants, 14 points against the Chiefs a week ago and then the 13 points at home versus Cincy. True, Dallas wasn’t able to do much, offensively, against Kansas City either, but it’s not hard to see why the betting odds favor Prescott’s squad instead of the Raiders here. Las Vegas is rapidly trending in the wrong direction, while the Cowboys probably just hit a small road bump."
Fansided: Cowboys 24, Raiders 10
Brad Weiss writes: "Las Vegas is struggling big time heading into this matchup, and I do not believe it gets any better coming into Dallas on a short week. The Cowboys are pretty banged up heading into this matchup and are dealing with some stars out due to COVID protocols, but they should have enough firepower to get it done at home."

Buffalo at New Orleans

Pro Football Network: Bills 23, Saints 20
Ben Rolfe writes: "This is another Thanksgiving game that a few weeks ago looked like it would be an intriguing battle between two formidable teams. Instead, we have two teams who got embarrassed last week and have won a combined one game in the last three weeks. Both teams desperately need the win, but the Bills should have the edge with the better QB."
Sportsnaut: Bills 31, Saints 20
Vincent Frank writes: "Two teams coming off absolutely ugly losses, there’s no telling how they will perform come Thanksgiving night. However, we’re going to go with Buffalo’s defense making a statement against the Saints’ injury-plagued offense and feast in this one."
The Game Day: Bills 27, Saints 24
Anthony Cervino writes: "If the New Orleans defense can stop the run without an extra man in the box and their secondary shows up, they will have a legit shot at containing Josh Allen and his slew of weapons, which will keep the game close. If this game is close at the end, I will give the Saints the edge at home. Whether it is Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, or both leading the backfield, the two run effectively enough to move the chains, win time of possession and keep Allen on the sidelines. However, if the Bills’ offense is rolling, I am not sure if the Trevor Siemian-led passing attack will pack enough punch to keep up with Allen despite the fact that the Saints are still a top-15 team in scoring offense."
Draft Kings: Bills will cover vs. Saints in Week 12 game
Teddy Ricketson writes: "In the week after the three games that the Bills lost previously this season, they responded with a win. Even though the Saints will theoretically have running back Alvin Kamara back, the rest of the offense has been shaky. The Bills gave up five total touchdowns to running back Jonathan Taylor, but they still have one of the best defenses in the NFL. On a short week, they will make the adjustments needed to stop the Saints' offense and reignite their own to cover."

Big On Sports: Go with the Bills to cover in Week 12 vs. Saints
Jake Flynn writes: "If anything it should be an exciting game. The Bills have responded well to losses going 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS while outscoring teams 106-28 following their first three defeats, and it’s been a full year since they dropped consecutive games. As much as I like the Saints they just aren’t the same without Brees and there’s a reason why Siemian is a well traveled vet."
Sportsnaut: Bills 27, Saints 14
Matt Johnson writes: "Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are going to cook the Saints' secondary. Marshon Lattimore is proving to be inconsistent this season and Diggs is one of the best in the NFL. Considering the state of the Saints' offense, Buffalo won't need much to win on Thanksgiving." Bills have a 56% win probability
The site gives the Saints a 44% win probability in the NFL Week 12 game.
ESPN: Bills have a 61.7% chance to win
The site's Football Power Index gives the Saints a 38% chance to pick up the victory in the Week 12 NFL game.