NFL Week 1 Prediction: New England at Miami
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at MIAMI DOLPHINS
New England Patriots +3 (-110) o46.5 (-110) +130
Miami Dolphins -3 (-110) u46.5 (-110) -155
Analysis:
The media, the public, and many bettors are sky high on T. Tua and the Dolphins this season. But we're not drinking that flavor kool-aid. Not yet, anyway.
On paper, Miami made significant improvements on both sides of the ball, but we have yet to see Tua either shine as a QB or as a leader (it might happen, but the questions remain).
This game looks to be lined about right, with the Dolphins laying a field goal.
For New England, all the talk is on the offensive coordinator confusion. Former OC departed and now head coach B. Belichick has been floundering on the decision about who will call the plays. But something tells us there's a smokescreen going on here. Belichick is a master of deflection and we don't see a veteran (arguably GOAT) coach of his pedigree losing any sense of control of the Patriots. Preseason games are played to get our wrinkles and the reports on the Patriots' coaching issues are likely overblown.
Another thing that makes us like the contrarian pick here--the Patriots. Unlike Tua, QB M Jones demonstrated he's the real deal. Now entering his second season, Jones should improve even further and keep the Patriots close in many games.
There's also a strong trend to play division dogs in the first week of the season (more on that later in other reports). New England is a +3 underdog of AFC East rival Miami in this game. we'll take the dog in the first half and for the game.
Our Picks:
