The Week 13 schedule is all over the place. We did not have a Thursday Night Football game, but we get two games on Monday and one on Tuesday.
That leaves us with 11 games in the Sunday afternoon window and plenty of prop bets to target. Using the raw statistics, footballoutsiders.com DVOA Ratings and Pro Football Focus's Matchup tools, I unearthed my four favourite prop bets for Sunday afternoon:
Dalvin Cook – OVER 105.5 Rushing Yards (-135)
Cook is coming off of his worst game of the season, running for just 61 yards on 18 attempts (3.4 Yds/Carry) and adding 21 more yards on four receptions. He is in a terrific bounce-back spot in Week 13 with a home matchup vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars. Cook has run for over 100 yards in five of his 10 games while the Jaguars have allowed three 100-plus yard rushers, including Nick Chubb last week.
Jacksonville has the seventh-worst Run DVOA in the NFL, and PFF gives the Minnesota offensive line a sizeable advantage over the Jags' D-line in the run game. That should open up big holes for Cook to exploit and pick up yards in big chunks. Since Week 2, every time he's been held under 100 yards, he has responded with a 100-plus yard performance in the following week. Expect another huge day from the NFL's second-leading rusher.
Darren Waller – OVER 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
After a strong showing vs. the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11 the Raiders turned in an absolute stinker in Atlanta in Week 12. Like Cook, Waller is in a great bounce-back spot though. He was unable to take advantage of a susceptible Falcons' defence but expect head coach Jon Gruden to get his top receiving threat involved vs. the Jets. With Josh Jacobs out, look for Derek Carr to throw more against the NFL's worst-rated Pass Defence. The Jets have given up big performances to tight ends this season, so it's easy to expect a big game from one of the most athletic tight ends in the game. Carr has targeted him 8.3 times per game, so he should get plenty of looks to try and go over 53.5 yards.
Allen Robinson – OVER 5.5 Receptions (-135)
Going from Nick Foles back to Mitch Trubisky did not improve the Bears' offensive efficiency, but it didn't hurt Allen Robinson's outlook either. Trubisky targeted Robinson 13 times, which makes the fourth time this season that he has 10-plus looks. Robinson was able to grab eight for 74 yards and two touchdowns in Green Bay, and now he has a date with a Lions secondary that was just gashed by Will Fuller V. The Lions rank 28th against the pass this season, so the Bears should have no trouble getting the ball to Robinson on Sunday. In 11 games this season, Robinson has hauled in at least six catches seven times, so this isn't a big ask for the Penn State product.
Tee Higgins – UNDER 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Higgins has enjoyed a terrific rookie season, making 48 catches for 673 yards and a team-high five receiving touchdowns. However, it has not been the same since Joe Burrow got hurt. After averaging 88.0 yards per game from Weeks 4 through 10, Higgins has accumulated just 70 yards in the last two weeks. Things won't get any easier this week when he has a date with Dolphins CB Xavien Howard. Howard is PFF's No.1 ranked CB this season, giving up just 46.4 yards per game.
-- by Timmy Bits
Headline Photo Credit: CBS Sports