Standings and simple win-loss records don't always tell the whole story as to what teams are a good bet or a bad bet.
In fact, sometimes the numbers can be deceiving.
In today's article, we'll examine these numbers and identify outlier betting situations based on the accumulated results through April 4th, 2021. Here's a look at the overall wagering results of all NHL teams in this regular season:
So, what stands out? What situations are potential buried treasure that most of the gambling public hasn't caught onto yet?
We might have some profitable discoveries. Here are some notable outliers from the chart:
(1) Florida Panthers have the NHL's best record – Who would have thought the NHL best two teams play in Florida? The Tampa Bay Lightning are Stanley Cup champions and were expected to be tough again as a potential repeat winner in 2021, but its the cross-state rival Panthers who are the real shocker at 26 wins and 9 losses. Oddsmakers still might not have caught on to the strength of Florida, which hasn't been given the same lay-odds prices as the NHL's other top teams. Hence, there still might be some value to betting the Panthers the rest of the regular season.
(2) The Winnipeg Jets are the NHL's best bet ATS – Not only are the Winnipeg Jets playioff bound with a 23-13 record, even more impressive has been their record on the puckline. Even when the Jets lose games, they usually play it tough. Winnipeg is an NHL's best 29-10 ATS this season and still may be underrated by bettors who haven't latched on to the Jets' scrappy style which makes them very live as puckline underdogs.
(3) The Buffalo Sabres really are as bad as their record indicates – The woeful Sabres are 8-23 this season, including 15-22 against the puckline. Accordingly, the odds on Buffalo games at +200 and higher are entirely justified given the results. Since the Sabres have won barely a quarter of their games, they'd be break even at an average price of roughly +300. There might be some slight value on Buffalo on the puckline when they're heavy underdogs. However, betting on the NHL's worst team isn't the best way to make money.
(4) The Detroit Red Wings are a moneymaker at home – Detroit has been awful this season, with a 15-22 SU record. However, they're actually a winning team at home, at 9-8 SU and a bargain for bettors given they are frequently home dogs. Since the Red Wings are often priced generously on their home ice, there might be some value in betting them in Detroit the remainder of the season.
(5) The New Jersey Devils love the road – The opposite of the Red Wings are the New Jersey Devils, who are an unimpressive 13-17 overall, but have the league's biggest disparity in home vs. road performance. The Devils are just 4-12 SU in New Jersey (nobody likes to play in New Jersey, it seems), but are a stellar 9-5 SU as a visitor. The Devils are an even more impressive 15-5 ATS on the road.
(6) Anaheim are the Mighty Ducks on the puckline – Another "bad" team that's made money on the puckline has been Anaheim. The poor Ducks might be just 11-22 SU and a horrible 5-12 at home SU, but this has been a solid performer when it comes to the puckline. Anaheim has lost 16 games by just one goal this season, which is the most in the NHL. The Ducks are quacking along at 25-14 against the puckline, second best in the league.
(7) New York loves the Island – The NY Islanders love the home ice. Nassau Coliseum might be the worst venue in all of pro sports, but it's heaven and has given the home team a definitive advantage. At 15-3 SU, the Islanders currently enjoy the NHL's best home record. NYI is also 14-4 ATS in their ancient building, making them one of the most formidible home teams in the league.
(8) The Boston Bruins are a terrible ATS road team – The Bruins might be in contention to win the East and skate into the playoffs, but don't ask them to cover the puckline as a roadie. Boston, 19-10 SU is a horrid 4-13 ATS as the away team. The Bruins are also the best under bet in this NHL this season, which may have some correlation to their sorry puckline results.
(9) Toronto is a smart bet to win games, but not laying -1.5 on the puckline – The Maple Leafs look to be the class of the North Division. They'll likely win the top seed among the seven Canadian teams and with a 26-10 SU record, be the rightful favourite in many games down the stretch. However, Toronto has also been a major disappointment for their puckline backers. The Leafs have post a dismal 15-24 record, losing money for bettors both at home and on the road. Hence, Toronto is winning a lot of close games. Lesson: Be wary of backing the Leafs on the puckline, which has been a money burner.
(10) St. Louis has the ATS blues – The Blues (16-16 SU) are a .500 team at this point, but have been the NHL's worst performer on the puckline. They're also a very bad home team, just 4-9 SU. Inexplicably, they play much better on the road. St. Louis has covered the puckline just 2 times this entire season at home and has lost 8 straight games on their home ice.
Note: In the next article, we'll example some O/U trends.