Oh, the Weather Outside is Frightful....

NFL Dec 19, 2022

LA Rams at Green Bay face off in a frigid NFC Monday Night Showdown

LA Rams at Green Bay
Line: Packers -7.5
O/U: 39.5



Game Analysis:

When the NFL schedule came out last Spring, everyone looked to this late-season game as one of the premier matchups of the season. Now, it looks like a mud pig.

Neither team is going anywhere, except home after the new year.

The Rams (4-9) have suffered more injuries that any team in recent memory. It's hard to blame the Rams for the steep decline after winning the Super Bowl. No roster can take as many hits as the Rams and remain viable as a championship contender.

Despite their many problems, the Rams enjoyed one of the most thrilling moments of the season at home last week when Baker Mayfield flew into LAX on his own dime, joined the Rams two days before game time, and then rallied his new team for an epic come-from-behind victory. Credit the Rams for playing their asses off, despite so many voids at skill positions. They haven't given up -- upsetting the Raiders, nearly beating the Seahawks, and playing a respectable game at Kansas City.

The reason the Rams continue being *in* most games is their defense, ranked #13 in the NFL. That might not sound impressive, but it is since the offense doesn't win much time of possession of field position battles, which places extra pressure on the D side.

Based on these factors, it's certainly possible for the Rams to go into Green Bay and make things difficult for an inconsistent Packers team that's struggled all season long.

As for the bye week (for the Packers), that might be offset by the Rams having played the previous Thursday. So, they should come into the game nearly as rested.

Line Analysis:

There's probably some value in betting the Rams on the moneyline at +270. If the Packers continue to struggle, the points may not matter.

While taking +7.5 is tempting (and perhaps the right side), if we expect the Rams' defense to play well and/or Baker Mayfield to do enough to keep his new team in the game, we might as well take the added value with the moneyline.

Weather in Green Bay is expected to be in the teens near gametime. Aaron Rodgers has played well in the cold, but that was when the Packers were one of the NFL's best teams. That's no longer the case.

Also, we can't discount Mayfield's experience in the cold, playing for four seasons in Cleveland.

We'll make two small wagers on the Rams to stay within the margin and possibly pull off the upset. Our money will be on the Rams +7.5 and a small bet on the Rams moneyline.

The Picks:

LA Rams +7.5 (-110)

LA Rams Moneyline (+270)