Picking a Winner in Tonight's Baltimore-Miami Game

NFL Nov 11, 2021

Baltimore -7.5 vs. Miami (-110)

Thursday night's game features Baltimore (6-2) at Miami (2-7).  At first glance, it seems crazy to lay this many points with the Ravens, who are just 3-5 ATS and have struggled when playing versus some weak opposition.  Off a short week, there's certainly compelling reasons to bet against Baltimore based on its performances, thus far.  That said, I have a deep suspicion the Ravens are due for a breakout game and this could be the perfect opponent to blow out.  Miami appears to be that perfect foe to suffer the blows, coming off an unspectacular victory versus the NFL's worst team (Houston).  The revolving door QB situation doesn't help the Dolphins who rank 28th in the league in points scored (17 PPG).  It will probably take far more points to cover, let alone win versus Baltimore, and I don't see Miami scoring enough to get there.  This line would be far more attractive at -7, and some bettors will be dissuaded by the extra hook.  But there's a reason for the number shaded over a TD and that's the Ravens being so superior in just about every phase of comparison.  I'll take the favorite here.