Saints a Live Dog in Superdome Hosting Brady's Bucs

NFL Sep 16, 2022

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Buccaneers -2.5 (-110) O 44.5 (-110) -155
Saints +2.5 (-110) U 44.5 (-110) +130

(all odds according to Spreads.ca)

Analysis:

The Bucs are playing consecutive road games following a Sunday night game, which is always tough. Strangely enough, over the last three seasons, NFL teams that started the season with back/back road games went 7-1 ATS in their Week 2 contests.

However, Tampa Bay is also banged up in a big way. Those injuries will keep us off of Tampa and lead us to bet on the Saints instead, especially as a home dog.

History:

It's a bit surprising to learn the Bucs haven't played well versus New Orleans, even with T. Brady's many successes.

New Orleans has dominated this matchup over the years and hasn't lost to Tampa Bay during the regular season since Week 1, way back in 2018.

Although both teams won last week, New Orleans has to feel a bit disrespected by this line. It's rare to see the Saints as a home dog in the Superdome.

Some concerns:

Admittedly, New Orleans is an unpredictable team and we never know which J. Winston will show up at QB.

But we're not counting on Winston's erratic arm.  Instead, we're expecting the NOR defense to step up after a disappointing effort in Atlanta last week when this unit (reportedly one of the NFL's best) surrendered 200+ rushing yards to the miserable Falcons.

Tampa Bay has serious injury concerns this week, including WR M. Evans who is questionable.  That will make things much easier for New Orleans to focus elsewhere and continue making T. Brady feel unwelcome in New Orleans.

Our decision:

The bottom line is -- we'll take the Saints getting points -- both for the first half and the full game.

This is an opportunity for the new coach and offense with Winston at QB to make a statement against their division rival.  

You can't go wrong taking division home dogs, usually.  So that's another tipping point in the Saints' favor.

The Picks:


New Orleans +1 (first half)
New Orleans +2.5 (-110)

Update:  This week's full report with every game analyzed and picks for every matchup will be released on Saturday morning.