Spreads Bettor Eric Schneller Breaks Down the NFL Season Win Totals (Part 1)
Editor's Note: Eric Schneller is a Pointspreads.ca reader and Spreads.ca bettor who absolutely loves the NFL. The only thing Eric enjoys more than watching the NFL is betting on the NFL. Since the "NFL FUTURES" and "SEASON WIN TOTALS" recently came out at Spreads.ca, Eric decided to share some thoughts on these numbers.
Note that the 2022 NFL regular season includes 17 games. So, if a team is listed at 8.5, that means the odds are the team will win around 8 to 9 games. For instance, the Arizona Cardinals season win total is 8.5. If the team finishes 9-8 or better, the OVER bettors win. If the Cardinals go 8-9 or worse, the UNDER bettors win.
All these numbers are available right now at Spreads.ca.
Here's the latest look at the odds:
Arizona Cardinals – 8.5 (Even)
Everything looked like it was set for this franchise a year ago, but then things crumbled the second half of last season. It feels like the Cardinals pulled a blanket over their heads when it came to dealing with the QB Kyler Murray situation or improving the roster. And rewarding a running back like James Conner with more money seems like an outdated idea. The Cardinals collapse every year and now they have to play the first six games on the schedule without their best offensive player, WR DeAndre Hopkins, who is suspended. This total went down to 8.5 from 9.5 based on that news. We love UNDER 9.5, but the value is now gone with the move downward by a full game. PASS
Atlanta Falcons – 5 (Vig shaded to the Under)
The Falcons were horrendous last season statistically speaking, and looked really lost at times, yet still somehow won seven games. Now, they are clearly in rebuild mode (finally!) but we think they can win four of their nine home games with journeyman vet QB Marcus Mariota starting combined with some interesting defensive rookies. And then we only need one road win to reach expectations. An easy schedule will help. OVER
Baltimore Ravens – 9.5 (Vig shaded to the Over)
Baltimore is always competitive. They could win 13 games. But they also might win 8. This all comes down to whether or not you think QB Lamar Jackson and the running backs can stay healthy this year. That’s pretty much it. Nothing the Ravens did this offseason mattered too much — free safety Kyle Hamilton will be good and the other picks project well at some point — after they thought they had free agent pass rusher Za’Darius Smith signed, but lost him. The may get an easier schedule this season as the Steelers and Browns in their division could decline. Talent and Justin Tucker's foot are worth a few wins in games they should lose. OVER
Buffalo Bills – 11.5 (Vig shaded to the Over)
The Bills won 11 games last season — and lost four of them by a combined 16 points. They also clearly got better clearly got better during the offseason, adding All-Pro Von “82 pressures last year” Miller, DaQuan Jones, Rodger Saffold and O.J. Howard. Then, the Bills drafted well and filled some needs. Their schedule isn’t too bad either, with the NFC North’s two best teams coming to Buffalo and the Lions and Bears hosting the Bills. For the OVER to lose, the Bills must go 11-6 or worse. So, where are Buffalo's 6+ losses coming from? We don't see it. This might be the best team in the NFL. OVER
Carolina Panthers – 6 (Vig shaded to the Under)
The Panthers look like a mess. But they did improve their offensive line. Too bad QB Sam Darnold is still the QB, and there's the problem. There is still some question as to whether Matt Rhule on the sidelines knows what he is doing, which is not and ideal situation for a third-year head coach. They do have a shot at improvement thanks to their friendly schedule. But if they don’t split their first four games against the Browns, Giants, Saints, and Cardinals, or sweep the Falcons, they are in big trouble. PASS
Chicago Bears – 6.5 (Vig shaded to the Under)
The Bears won six games last year, then lost Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson, had zero first-round picks, and now they are going to get better – up in the win count by half a game? Bears beat writer Kevin Fishbain stated:
“You can certainly convince yourself that QB Justin Fields will take a big jump in a new offense, Matt Eberflus’ defense will take the ball away more, and the Bears can take advantage of a schedule that includes the Lions twice, Falcons, Texans, Jets, Giants, and Commanders, all teams with win totals of 7.5 or lower.”
We’re still taking the UNDER. UNDER
Cincinnati Bengals – 10 (Vig shaded to the Under)
The Bengals finally addressed their offensive line issues and then added a versatile defensive back in the draft in Daxton Hill. That’s what Super Bowl losers are supposed to do – be honest about holes in the lineup and plug them with better players. Cincy gets the NFC South on the docket — which seems too easy for Joe Burrow and Company. This team just got better as the season went along and is scary young. OVER
Cleveland Browns – OFF THE BOARD
Another year, another starting quarterback in Cleveland. Deshaun Watson’s status in Cleveland could break very badly or end up as the deal of the decade. The Browns didn’t care about the sexual misconduct charges and multiple assault allegations against their new quarterback. It appears the league could give him a 3 to 5 game suspension. So, he doesn't enter the season with a new team after a long layoff at 100 percent. It would be challenging enough for Watson and his team to hit the ground running. But this season begins with too many question marks. That's why the Browns are off the board until things clear up. PASS
Dallas Cowboys – 10 (Even)
The Cowboys have the NFL's easiest schedule. They play five games this year with more rest than their opponent, the most of any team in the NFL. Is that enough to overcome an underachieving roster that got a lot worse at receiver, offensive line, and defensive line and seems to be finally paying the price for a lot of owner Jerry Jones horrible personnel moves and dead contracts? No, but it will be close. We think the Cowboys finish 9-8 or 10-7 simply because they play in an awful division. PASS
Denver Broncos – 10.5 (Vig shaded to the Over)
The big offseason move to add QB Russell Wilson and shore up an already good defense have made the Broncos one of the more popular teams in the league, especially as an OVER season wins bet. However, this ignores some worrisome signs of regression with Wilson, lingering question marks surrounding a first-year coach, and playing in the toughest division in the NFL. A four-game leap from seven wins in 2021 seems like too big of a stretch. UNDER
Detroit Lions – 6.5 (Vig shaded to the Under)
The Lions "Under 4 wins" was an winner, but we sure had to sweat it. So, why do this again and repeat the same wager? Well, easy. Detroit can double last year’s win total of three victories and the under still cashes. We just don’t see QB Jared Goff taking this team to the next level. Then, we don't know if Tom Brady could take this team to the next level. The Lions have a dreaded tradition of losing, which will continue. UNDER
Green Bay Packers – 11 (Even)
The Packers are always reliable in the regular season to win 12+, thanks to Aaron Rodgers (who needs Davante Adams?), an improving running game, and an opportunistic defense, not to mention a home edge. Some questionable moves the last three offseasons guarantee they’re not winning another ring with Rodgers, but 11 wins? That should be easy money. OVER
Houston Texans – 4.5 (Vig shaded to the Under)
On one hand, the Texans are now free of the Deshaun Watson mess, which has been such a distraction. It must have been frustrating losing 13 games last year while their best player was getting paid millions to stay home. That doesn’t mean we think they win an extra game this year, especially after the bungled coaching search and with them being the only team in the NFL to have three games against opponents coming off a bye. The front office is a mess. Everything about the Texans is a mess. UNDER
PART 2 COMING SOON
Note: Much of the text and personnel notes are taken from THE ATHLETIC.
