[SNF] Kansas City at LA Chargers
Line: Chiefs -5.5
Everything in this game from a handicapping standpoint depends on the fragile injury situation for the Chargers. If healthy, the Chargers can stick with the Chiefs, especially as home dogs. But if this team is anywhere close to the MASH unit we saw in San Francisco last week, with their 2nd and 3rd stringers desperately trying to keep pace with a better team, then the Chargers will have zero chance.
Even super-talented QB Justin Herbert can't overcome getting no pass protection, receivers running wrong routes, and quick three-and-outs that place way too much pressure on the defense.
The last reports we've seen say the LAC are getting a number of their starters back just in time to face the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. According to the team’s final injury report, every player except for one was a full participant in Friday's practice, including both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. However, both remain listed as questionable. That's probably why the line hasn't moved much, and is still heavily in favor of the Chiefs.
Prediction and Pick:
We're counting on the Chargers to certainly be healthier, and at near full strength, which makes them an attractive bet both as a side wager and a teaser wager. Typically, we stay away from games with high totals on teasers (O/U 52), because more points creates far greater volatility 9and I hate high-scoring games, which are much tougher to handicap). Teasing teams is always preferable in games totaled up to around 42. Anything over 50 is usually an automatic pass on teasing. Those are sucker bets.
Trends are strange in this matchup. Kansas City has absolutely dominated this AFC West rivalry series, but that has not translated into ATS covers of late. The Chiefs are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games vs. the Chargers. However, LAC are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games -- including a nail-biting 27-24 loss (but easy cover) early in the season at Arrowhead.
Wagering against Kansas City can sometimes end up looking like the dumbest bet of the day when Reid and Mahomes' team is clicking. Despite those fears, a healthier Chargers team at home playing their rival and teased up to double digits is appealing. So, we'll take the dog at +11.5 and tease it (take your pick on the combo team, but we like Minnesota also teased up to +7.5.
The Pick: TEASER: LA Chargers +11.5 (with Minnesota +7.5) (-120)