NFL Sunday Night: Packers vs. Eagles
[SNF] Green Bay at Philadelphia
Line: Eagles -6.5
O/U: 46.5
Analysis:
Are the Packers done for the season? It sure looks that way after losing by 10 points at home last week and now being mired in the uncharacteristic tailspin of a 4-7 record.
It's really tough to figure out where the Packers' are at the moment, mentally speaking, let alone try to predict how much effort we can expect when they play the team with the NFL's best record on Sunday night. Green Bay has lost six of their last seven contests with their lone win coming against the Cowboys, among the NFC's best teams at the moment.
QB Aaron Rodgers hasn't played anywhere near his usual A-List level, hampered by a bum thumb and a depleted receiver corps, neither of which is going to change tonight in this matchup. Scoring just 18 PPG, and 12 PPG on the road, this has become a below-average offense.
The defense is just as problematic, allowing 27+ in five of their last seven games.
To give some balance, however, let's note that the Pack are playing one of the NFL’s toughest schedules -- since 8 of their 11 opponents have winning records, and they’re just 2-6 in those games.
The Pick:
Under these circumstances, it's impossible to bet Green Bay, that is, unless we're getting more than a touchdown. In fact, this pointspread might be jaded too heavily towards the Packers--purely based on history and reputation. But recent results show that this team is nowhere near the same as the 13-win dominant franchise we've gotten used to in the Rodgers era.
Based on this "slow to react" line movement on Packers' games (i.e., they're still getting too much respect), we'll go with Philadelphia here laying less than a TD.
The Eagles haven't playyed well, lately either. But they do manage to win games even on off-days, as they showed in the "false win" last week in Indianapolis. Their last three, the Eagles were tied at halftime in Houston, lost by double digits at home to Washington, and were behind most of the game to the car crash that is Indy. One expects a home primetime game versus the Packers is a great opportunity to play up to their 9-1 record. Given their last primetime home game was a loss, that likely sets up conditions for an even more focused effort. Good teams tend to bounce back after disappointments.
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS at home this season. The Eagles are also the NFL's best first half team, averaging 18 PPG1H, while outscoring opponents by an average of nearly 9 PPG1H. Green Bay has been a slow-starting team all season long. It's tempting to lay -4 in the 1H with the Eagles, but we think the slightly better value is to lay the -6.5 for the full game.
Final Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 (-110)
Eagles 30 - Packers 17
