NFL Sunday Plays (Week 15)

NFL Dec 18, 2022

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Disclaimer:  Opinions are those of Nolan Dalla. All information here and the comments provided on this website are for entertainment purposes only.  I do not intend nor advise readers to make any wagers. Ultimately, you must make your own decisions about if to gamble, how much to wager, and which bets to make.

2022 NFL WAGERING RECORD

ALL PICKS POSTED HERE AT POINTSPREADS.CA

113  Wins

79  Losses

0  Pushes

READ LAST WEEK'S REPORT HERE

Dallas at Jacksonville
Analysis: No Action. I don’t trust the Cowboys from December onward. I’m not laying points with a road favorite here, especially after seeing Dallas shit the bed last week at home against awful Houston.

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Detroit Lions +.5 (half point) vs. NY Jets (-110)
Analysis: I’ll stay on the Lions’ victory and cover train, which has cashed in six straight. Much credit to Mike White for his performance last week, but the Lions appear to be a good bet down the stretch for the rest of the season (Zach Wilson starting for Jets).

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Kansas City / Houston UNDER 49 (-110)
Analysis: Lots of O/U points for a Texans’ game, since the offense is anemic. Chiefs have underperformed in big-spread games this season (recall LA Rams and Tennessee). I say this falls someplace in the low- to mid-40s.

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Chicago Bears Team Total First-Half OVER 9.5 (-125)
Analysis: The Bears might end up losing by double digits, but they’re far more competitive with QB Justin Fields starting and should score some points. I say Chicago breaks the 9.5 team total in the first half.

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Carolina Panthers -3 vs. Pittsburgh (-110)
Analysis: Pittsburgh is starting Mitch Trubisky this week (Pickett is out). That’s all I need to hear, especially given that Carolina is underrated performance-wise and is 6-2 ATS since their midseason coaching change.

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Arizona at Denver
Analysis: No Action. Denver’s outstanding defense is the only positive thing on the field in this game (Wilson and Murray are both out, and both coaches might be axed at season’s end).

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New England +1.5 First-Half (-110)
Analysis: It’s painful to watch the Patriots’ offense, at times. But, they remain very much alive in the playoff race, are coming off a win, and face a weak defense this week. I’ll take points in the first half, given this appears to be a total crap shoot.

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Prop: Tom Brady OVER 26.5 pass completions (-105)
Analysis: I should probably fade Tampa Bay in this game since they are one of the NFL’s most disappointing teams. However, even when the Bucs struggle, Brady somehow gets plenty of pass completions. This seems counter-intuitive, but the stats don’t lie. Brady’s pass completions since Oct. 1st read as follows: 34-36-29-22-36-26-32-25-35-39-31. That’s 9/11 to the OVER 26.5, and the two UNDERs fell just short. Getting any value with an OVER prop connected to Brady is rare, but I don’t see the Bucs changing the system, especially since they could be playing again from behind as they so often have done this season.

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Tennessee at LA Chargers
Analysis: No Action.

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Check back later for more updates.  All games (including SNF and MNF) will be analyzed up through kickoff.

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