Super Bowl Player Prop: Jalen Hurts -- Over/Under 49.5 Yards?

NFL Feb 06, 2023

We think the rushing yardage number on Eagles' quarterback Jalen Hurts should be somewhere in the mid- to high-30s.  So, at "49.5" getting 10+ yards on a rushing prop appears to have excellent value.

Player props may very well be the best bets on the Super Bowl.  While much of the betting market focuses on which side will win, and how many points will be scored, the stats on individual players are more difficult to put an accurate line on, which means there's opportunity for prop hunters.

One of the most attractive props on the board might be JALEN HURTS UNDER 49.5 RUSHING YARDS.

This number is available right now (as of Monday) at SPREADS.CA.

This is a high rushing total for any quarterback not named Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields.  It's skewed high for the perceived mobility Hurts brings to the Eagles' dynamic offense.  We agree, Hurts is the total package and is a valid run-pass threat.

That said, this total is geared for suckers to bet the OVER.  Many bettors will remember Hurts 157-yard rushing outburst in late November, which set a new franchise record.  However, since then, Hurts has been contained for the most past, and isn't as much of a threat.

The Philadelphia offensive scheme has made sure to ease Hurts back into the offense following his return from a shoulder injury in mid-season.  Looking at his last three games, Hurts ran for just 13 yards against the New York Giants to close out the regular season.  He increased his rushing yardage to 34 in the divisional playoff round.  Then, Hurts hit the 39 yard mark in the NFC championship game. None of those last three performances gets close to the 50 yards needed to break this over-under rushing total for the Super Bowl.

Oh, and assuming the Eagles win and close out the game with the ball, there's the "kneel down" factor.  If Hurts has the ball in the closing minute and Philadelphia is winning, subtract 1-2 yards per play from his game rushing total.  We've actually seen QB rushing player props graded as OVER until the final series of plays, then subtracting yardage results in the final grade of an UNDER.

The Eagles' coaching staff knows that their superstar quarterback cannot afford to get hurt, especially early in the game.  So, he will likely stay within the pocket for most of the first half, and won't turn into a runner.  Another mobile QB,  the Bills' Josh Allen, who finished ahead of Hurts in rushing yards during the regular season, had just 32 rushing yards when he faced Kansas City in October.  So, there's some evidence that the Chiefs can contain mobile QBs.  Yes, that's limited data, but there's no doubt Kansas City is aware of Hurts as a runner.

Finally, in all the Super Bowls played over the past 56 years, QBs don't often run for many yards.  The illustrious list of mobile QBs throughout Super Bowl history includes names like Tarkenton, Staubach, Young, McNabb, Newton, Wilson, and more recently Mahomes.  However, Steve McNair holds the all-time QB rushing record, with just 64 yards (in 2000).

We think this number should be in the mid- to high-30s.  So, getting 10+ yards on a rushing prop appears to have excellent value.