A Super Bowl Prop You Might Win Before the Opening Kickoff
Betting on Super Bowl propositions is the Christmas morning of sports gambling
This coming Sunday, promptly at 3:30 pm PT, Super Bowl LVI kicks off in Los Angeles.
Football's championship game and betting – what a perfect combo.
We've calculated the odds on several proposition wagers that are worthy of considering. So, over this next week, please check back here at POINTSPREADS.CA for more analysis, particularly regarding props betting.
What follows is the first of three writeups on wagers you could win (or lose) before the first offensive play even takes place. Imagine the thrill (or the agony) of being up for the day early, prior to the first snap. Digging an early hole is no fun, but if you win – and this bet really looks attractive – that's a sweet little freeroll.
We view each of these three props and prices as solid wagers. We'll post Part 2 and Part 3 very soon.
The value on this prop is based on the following factors:
WILL THE TEAM THAT WINS THE COIN TOSS DEFER THE OPENING KICKOFF?
YES -525
NO +400
Comments: Since 2018, about 93 percent of all NFL teams in both the regular season and postseason elected to defer when they won the midfield coin toss. The "defer" trend has only grown in recent years, as more coaches prefer this option.
Moreover, since 2008, 12 of 13 of Super Bowls played have seen the coin-toss winners defer (92 percent).
As for these specific head coaches and their history, Los Angeles Rams frontman Sean McVay has deferred in 48 of 48 coin-flip wins (100 percent of the time). And in his only previous Super Bowl appearance (three years ago versus the Patriots), Sean McVay deferred after winning the coin flip.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor has deferred in 26 of 27 his coin flip wins in all the games he's been in charge on the sidelines (96 percent). The only time Taylor elected to receive the opening kickoff after winning the toss was a midseason game two years ago.
So, do we have enough value here to bet it laying -525? That means laying $525 to win $100. Isn't that a huge risk to win relatively little in profit? Well, yes and no. All props are based on numbers and all bets worth making should be based on value. History shows that each of these numbers above are significantly higher than the 85 percent we need to have value on this bet.
Hence, we recommend betting the YES -525 on the prop of deferring the opening kickoff.
Credit: Pete Truszkowski
