Two Bets for the Patriots-Falcons Game

NFL Nov 18, 2021

Atlanta +7 (vs. New England (-128) — Buy the half point up to +7

First Half:  Atlanta Team Total OVER 9.5 (-140)

The Falcons are flip-flop team, wildly inconsistent, underperformers when expected they might play well, and overperformers when least expected to win.  This has been a hallmark of Matt Ryan’s career, and I expect that to continue here with a rebound effort in the Thursday night game.  Off a short week, the Falcons do enjoy some advantages.  I suspect that once they fell behind in Dallas last week and faced reality they were outmatched, the team mailed it in, so to speak, playing things close to the vest in preparation for this next game, versus New England.  The Falcons do have weapons on offense and even though the Patriots have suddenly become playoff viable and are scoring lots of points, Atlanta seems primed to put up a good effort.  Accordingly, I took the Falcons getting +7 (juiced to -128) as the home dog. I also see value in the Falcons going OVER a first-half team total of 9.5.  They average 10.7 PPG (1H) this season, which might not seem much higher than the total, but getting a win on 10 is key (one reason it’s juiced to -140).  I’m on the Falcons to score some points in the first half and to keep this game within the margins.  It’s also a good fade opportunity versus New England, which is playing exceptional, but also looks like they’re due for a mediocre effort.  This short week on the road could be that letdown spot.

Back later in the week.



51  Wins

36  Losses

1  Push

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