Jack Hermansson is finally locked in on Marvin Vettori after his two previous opponents Darren Till and Kevin Holland fell out due to various reasons.
This fight is a great matchup where we will see the ever evolving Hermansson take on the last guy to push the Middleweight Champion Israel Adesanya in Vettori.
This being a 5 round fight is a big advantage for Jack being that he was preparing for this while Vettori was preparing for 3 rounds against Jacare Souza.
Hermansson comes in with a strike advantage of 5.1 to 4.3 when it comes to landed strikes per minute. Vettori isn’t heavy on throwing lots of volume on the feet. He tends to throw one strike at a time whereas you will see Jack Hermansson throw multiple at a time, especially if he is able to land that first shot. He does a good job using his jab and striking to back you up to the fence where he will either continue to piece you up with shots or he will put you in a position vulnerable for a takedown.
By no means is Jack Hermansson a highly technical striker, but he is a level above Vettori and has good enough combinations and variety on the feet to give him an edge.
Hermansson has shown the ability to control the ground game as well. Vettori does offer a better takedown percentage at 47% compared to Hermansson’s 35%, however Hermansson averages more takedowns on a per 15 minute basis averaging 2.2 takedowns per 15 mins compared to 1.7 for Vettori.
The key for Hermansson to win this fight is to make sure that he continues to increase his volume as the rounds go on like he has shown to do in his recent fights. Vettori might have the better wrestling, but he’s not a submission purist. He uses ground and pound to get his opponents to turtle up and once he gets their back, he locks in that rear naked choke. Four of his 9 submissions wins have been by RNC and 3 out of the 9 have been by guillotine. Jack Hermansson has not lost via a RNC or guillotine before so the likelihood of Vettori being able to pull this off is very low. Jack is great off his back and if Vettori tries to overextend himself trying to go for a ground and pound, we could see Jack raise those legs and try to lock in a triangle.
In this fight we will see it start out extremely competitive but throughout the course of the bout, Hermansson will take control and get the win. Vettori hasn’t been finished before, and probably won’t start now, so this one is likely to go to the cards.
Pick: Jack Hermansson (+110) Bonus: by Decision (+650)
Extra Props: Over 2.5 Rounds (-151)
-- by Three-Piece Combo
Photo Credit: UFC