2021 PGA Championship Picks and Predictions

Other May 18, 2021

Dates:  Thursday, May 20, 2021 through Sunday, May 23, 2021
Course:  Kiawah Island Golf Resort
Location: Kiawah Island, South Carolina
Par-Yardage:  72, 7,849 yards


The PGA Championship is in action this week, the second of the four majors in golf.  Players will tee off on Thursday morning at the Ocean Course in Kiawah Island, South Carolina.  This is a wide-open course and a wide-open field, so wagering should be exciting, and for some, profitable, as well.

There are 156 golfers who will participate.  That's a huge field and makes for the more likely prospect of relative unknowns being on the leaderboard.  The large number of entires also drives the odds up on the favourites.  No golfer is better than a 10-1 shot in the PGA this year.

Here are the top 25 or so golfers according to the odds of winning posted at SPREADS.CA:

Keep in mind, the ENTIRE card is up at SPREADS.CA.  There are also lots of props and player matchups.

Picking a winner in any golf tournament is challenging, but the open field at Kiawah Island this week is even more tricky.

There’s no true favorite, and the circumstances surrounding the unusual course will most certainly mix up the leaderboard over the course of the four-day weekend.  Always competitive in top events, Dustin Johnson currently leads the field at 10-1 odds.  That's a nice possible payoff.  By contrast, Bryson DeChambeau was as low as +750 for the 2020 Masters.  Dustin Johnson was +900 for this year’s Masters -- which did have a much smaller field of participants than this tournament.

Rory McIlroy is also among the favourites at +1200.  And why not McIlroy to win?  After all, he won by eight strokes the last time the PGA was hosted at Kiawah in 2012, and he also won on tour earlier this month at the Wells Fargo.  Oddly enough, the Wells Fargo tourney victory snapped an ugly 19-month losing streak that included a missed cut at the Masters.  McIlroy being “back” in the thick of things makes for a great story, but it may not make for a smart wager. Opinion:  Way too many variables and issues here to bet him at that price.

Quoting golf betting analyst Jay Busbee who made a few predictions:

"Jon Rahm (+1100) isn’t yet at that best-to-never-win-a-major stage of his career, but by the numbers, he’s the best player on Tour not to win a major yet. It’ll happen, sooner rather than later."
"Justin Thomas (+1200) has a Players Championship win already this year, but also some erratic play as he looks to add a second PGA Championship."
"Jordan Spieth (+1400) is the tournament’s other must-watch figure from a legacy standpoint, since the PGA Championship is all he needs to win the career Grand Slam. Unlike McIlroy, Spieth is absolutely rolling, with seven wins in his past nine tournaments, including a win at the Valero Texas Open. He’s also an expert in the wind, a skill that will come in handy this weekend."
"DeChambeau (+1400) won’t be able to unleash his usual power on this course, since leaving the fairway is so punitive, but if he can throttle back and stay accurate, he’ll be in fine shape."
"Some players outside the traditional titans who are drawing notice thanks to their recent play: Daniel Berger (+3000), Viktor Hovland (+3000) and Sam Burns (+4000). And Xander Schauffele (+1400) is heading toward that fabled bet-him-til-he-wins status."
"The PGA is incredibly generous to first-time major winners — six of the last 10 PGA winners have only that one major victory on that resume — so don’t be afraid to look a little lower down the rankings for picks."

Oh, and if you're looking for the craziest, zaniest, most ridiculous longshot on the board, why not bet John Daly?  He's teeing off at 1,000-1.

Now, that would be golf's biggest lightning strike.