2021 NFL Predictions and Picks: Week 7
2021 NFL WAGERING RECORD
30 Wins — 21 Losses — 1 Push
My picks went 2-1 last week for another modest win. I’ll gladly take steady bankroll building anytime over huge swings and high variance. I’m quite happy with 58 percent wins based on 52 posted wagers thus far. Anyone who understands how difficult NFL handicapping is and knows of the challenge of beating the point spread over the long run should be pleased with these results.
So, let's move on to this week's plays. Here are the odds as of Friday at SPREADS.CA:
WEEK 7 PREDICTIONS AND PICKS
Atlanta -2.5 vs. Miami
Atlanta Falcons Team Total OVER 23.5 (-140)
Atlanta isn’t normally a team associated with a “Best Bet.” This team has a recent history of disappointing bettors who back them. The Falcons’ defense has been among the league’s worst for years. And, this is a new coaching staff with many uncertainties. However, their opponent this week appears to be in much worse shape. Miami has regressed this season with a disappointing 1-5 record. Worse, the offense has been one of the NFL’s least consistent, with two quarterbacks alternating the starting role. The Dolphins losing to Jacksonville in last week’s London game might have been rock bottom for a team that looks to be in disarray. It might be too early to use the word “bust” with Tua, who is in his second season. But he’s certainly on that track. Talk has been the Dolphins are quietly engaged in the Deshawn Watson trade. Aside from problems on offense, the strength of the Dolphins was supposed to be defense, especially given coach Brian Flores’ background. But Miami has surrendered — 23, 45, 27, 31, and 35 points respectively in its past five games. The Falcons should be able to add to those numbers given the improvement shown in the past three weeks. QB Matt Ryan is coming off his finest game of 2021 as well, throwing for 342 yards and 2 touchdowns — and that was without the team’s two starting WRs, including one of the league’s best in Calvin Ridley. Ridley is expected to return in Week 7. That will be bad news for the Dolphins, as it’s unclear if either of the team’s two starting CBs Xavien Howard and Byron Jones — will suit up on Sunday. Atlanta, winners of 2/3, probably should be in a 3-game win streak were it not for the last-minute loss to Washington. This week, the Falcons come off a bye and have 13 days to prepare for an opponent coming off a tough travel situation and a loss of confidence. Hence, the Falcons are the pick here — laying -2.5 for the game and to exceed their team scoring total of 23.5 points, even with high vig (-140). For us to lose both of these wagers, Miami has to come up big on defense. I don’t see that happening.
NY Giants / Carolina Panthers UNDER 43
Both offenses are a mess and come into Week 7 with significant injuries. The 27th ranked Giants offense will be without WR Kadarius Toney and their best OT, Andrew Thomas. Those losses are added to RB Saquon Barkley being gone. They’re also facing a tough decision at some point when they must decide whether to keep QB Daniel Jones at the starter. The Panthers haven’t played well the last three weeks, but let’s remember they were the NFL’s #1 defense in Weeks 1-3 when playing versus weak opposition. Carolina should regain some confidence on that side of the ball facing a unit hobbled with so many problems. Meanwhile, the Panthers’ offense tipped their hand this week, which looks to be a great situation to play the UNDER: Coach Matt Rhule promised the Carolina Panthers’ offense will take on a “vastly different look” moving forward after the team’s third straight loss. With star RB Christian McCaffrey still out with a hamstring injury, Rhule plans to lean more on rookie Chuba Hubbard and the running game beginning this week. “We have run the ball well, but we have not been committed enough to running it — and that’s going to change, I can tell you right now,” Rhule said emphatically during a news conference Monday. “You will see a vastly different look from us moving forward. We’re not going to line up and drop back and throw it 40 times a game and think that is going to win the game for us. It hasn’t.” These factors all point to more rushing, less passing, and a low-scoring game. My pick is UNDER 43.
Arizona Cardinals / Houston Texans UNDER 47
It’s tough betting an UNDER in an Arizona game, but this looks like the week to do so. They should have no problem controlling the weak Houston Texans at 18-point favorites), which looked miserable at Indy last week. So, don’t look for a major effort here from the Cardinals who face a short week — they have just four days after this game hosting the Green Bay Packers in a huge showdown next Thursday night. So, why would Arizona show much or post lots of points when the objective is likely to be winning the game and getting out of the weekend with no injuries? Accordingly, I don’t think we will see that much from the Cardinals. in fact, this looks like a similar situation to the 17-10 Arizona win two weeks ago versus San Francisco when the 49ers came into Phoenix with a rookie QB and the two teams played a lead-pipe lock UNDER. I won’t spend much time on the Texans, which have been held to under 10 points in 3 of their last 4 games. It’s hard to see Houston putting up many points this week unless somehow the Cardinals’ defense completely mails it in. I’m glad to see a number that’s overreacting to the market perceptions of the Cardinals as a great offense. This week, look for them to put up more modest numbers.
THIS WEEK’S BETS (Lay amount/Win amount):
Atlanta -2.5 vs. Miami
Atlanta Falcons Team Total OVER 23.5 (-140)
NY Giants / Carolina Panthers UNDER 43
Arizona Cardinals / Houston Texans UNDER 47
