NFL Predictions and Picks: Week 9

NFL Nov 06, 2021


35 Wins

29 Losses

1 Push

Starting Bankroll:     $10,000.

Current Bankroll:     $10,738.

Last week my picks went 1-7, which was my worst single-day results in three years.

After doing this for so many years, one of the toughest challenges is to keep at it after a really bad streak.  But I'm also reminded that in a long 22-week season (including the playoffs), a few bad weeks are probably inevitable.  It's demoralizing to not see games played out according to prediction, and no matter how much work is put into the analysis, that's why beating the NFL over the long haul is so difficult.  Sometimes, shit happens.

Also, I never run from my record.  Win or lose, I post it and face it head-on.  Then, try harder next week.

Here's a look back at last week's numbers.


Carolina / Atlanta OVER 46 -- Risking $330 to win $300 LOST

Atlanta Team Total (First Half) OVER 12.5 (-130) -- Risking $390 to win $300 LOST

Pittsburgh Team Total OVER 19.5 (-130) -- Risking $390 to win $300 [BEST BET] LOST

Pittsburgh Team Total OVER 9.5 (First Half) -- Risking $330 to win $300 LOST

(First Half) Detroit +3 vs. Philadelphia (-115) -- Risking $230 to win $200 LOST

(First Half) Jacksonville +3 vs. Seattle (-115) -- Risking $230 to win $200 LOST

Jacksonville Team Total OVER 9.5 (First Half) (-120) -- Risking $240 to win $200 LOST

SNF: Minnesota / Dallas UNDER 52.5 -- Risking $330 to win $3o0 WON


This week, I'm concentrating primarily on first-half team totals.  

I don't see much value with sides and moneylines, and the quarterback situation for many games is uncertain.  Combine these uncertainties with some trepidation about my own analysis on sides (and totals), and that makes for a good time to change the focus, at least for this week's games.  Remember, it's a long season and we have many options and tools.  Let's put down the chainsaw and pick up a hammer.

I made these six plays:

Adding Two-Team Teaser -- MIAMI (pick) DALLAS (-4) -- Risking $600 to win $500 (BEST BET)

(Note: This is is cash bet, so it's not listed above)

THIS WEEK’S BETS (Lay amount/Win amount):

First-Half Team Total -- CLEVELAND OVER 9.5 -- 465/300

First-Half Team Total -- MINNESOTA OVER 9.5 -- 450/300

First-Half Team Total -- TENNESSEE UNDER 10.5 -- 480/300

First-Half Team Total -- PHILADELPHIA UNDER 10.5 -- 360/300

First-Half Team Total -- CINCINNATI UNDER 10.5 -- 345/300

Two-Team Teaser -- MIAMI (pick) DALLAS (-4) -- 600/500