Washington at Philadelphia: A Team Total Bet for Monday Night
What we see having value is Philadelphia’s team total in the first half. It’s listed at 13.5, meaning we get the win on 14, which is crucial.
Monday Night Football
Washington at Philadelphia
Line: Eagles -11
O/U: 43.5
Moneylines: Commanders +400 / Eagles -525
Analysis:
The Eagles aim to remain undefeated and should stay that way given several advantages heading into this Monday night game.
Philadelphia is at home, laying double digits, and faces a team with lots of problems and distractions. Let’s credit the job head coach Ron Rivera has done keeping his team competitive. They’ve won 3 of 4, and were close to upsetting 8-1 Minnesota at home last week before falling in the final minute.
The problem is (aside from the front office and ownership situation being a total mess), the Commanders have problems converting 3rd downs (ranking #26th) and scoring points (also #26th). Averaging just 17 PPG isn’t going to be enough to beat Philadelphia, which is the second-highest scoring team in the NFL (only to Buffalo) at 28 PPG.
The well-rested Eagles also come in off a mini-bye, playing Houston 11 days ago. Philadelphia certainly didn’t look like an undefeated team in that game, and was tied with the worst team in the league at halftime 14-14. It remains to be seen just how focused the Eagles will be this week, though there’s talk that the “undefeated” chase is beginning to take root in the locker room.
We can’t lay -11 with the Eagles, because it’s a division game and also due to the 3.5+ and 10+ point dogs enjoying about 65 percent covers this season. Instead, we are looking at the team totals on this game.
The Bet:
What we see having value is Philadelphia’s team total in the first half. It’s listed at 13.5, meaning we get the win on 14, which is crucial.
At home, under the lights coming off a lackluster win, Philadelphia should be in a mood to show off. The Eagles are the second-highest-scoring team in the NFL in the first half, averaging 20 PPG1H. So, this is a good team to bet on in the opening 2 frames.
The 1H line is Eagles -6.5, which is also tempting, but I tend not to lay points in halves. If you like that bet, the smarter wager is probably to just count on the Eagles getting close to their season-scoring average, which should push this team total OVER in the 1H.
Note the high vig, which is justified. We’d rather pay the high vig at 13.5 than get it at 14.
The Pick:
Philadelphia Team Total (First Half) OVER 13.5 (-130)
