When Baseball's Bad Teams are Good Bets
Don't be afraid to pull the trigger with a wager on a so-called bad team. Sometimes, they can be very good bets.
Notice anything strange lately when it comes to betting Major League Baseball?
The bad teams are now killing it. They're on fire.
Since the All-Star break, several of the worst teams in the majors are the biggest money makers. Okay, except for the Texas Rangers. They really, really suck. But some other cellar dwellers are baseball bettors' best friends, right now.
As proof, here are five of the top six teams measured by return-on-investment. Only the Boston Red Sox, who are currently in first-place – returning 34 percent overall since the All-Star break – don't fit the mold of sub-par teams as baseball's best bets. Okay, we'll give Seattle their due, also.
Here's the breakdown on what you'd make in profit if you'd bet $100 on each of these teams since July 14th:
Seattle Mariners – ROI +58%
Baltimore Orioles – ROI +44%
Pittsburgh Pirates – ROI +37%
Kansas City Royals – ROI +32%
Detroit Tigers – ROI +23%
Even the horrible Arizona Diamondbacks, who have gone 5-5 in the second half of the season, have turned a profit for their backers.
Here's a complete list of all the teams in the majors over the last ten games. Pay special attention to the ROI column, which is furthest on the right. You want to look closely at that because it shows when teams are money makers versus money burners:
Does this mean we should ride the wave and bet on these "bad" teams at least for a little while longer? It's hard to say. However, there remains some value associated with these teams, which are looked upon by the betting market as "losers,"and so they get some added pricing in the lines.
For instance, perhaps the Baltimore Orioles should realistically be priced at +170 when playing versus the Tampa Bay Rays. But due to the perceptions on both of these teams, the Orioles may be priced at +190. This is purely hypothetical, of course. But it illustrates the key concept of sports betting and odds – which is value.
The takeaway from all this is – don't be afraid to pull the trigger with a wager on a so-called bad team. Sometimes, they can be very good bets.
