The Toronto Blue Jays (50-48) appear to be a strong play today as a slight underdog versus the first place Boston Red Sox (63-40).
The Blue Jays looked weak in last night's 4-1 loss (7 innings), especially at the plate. It almost always takes more than a run to beat Boston, and Toronto did not deliver.
The Blue Jays should fare much better tonight in this fourth and final critical game of the series and rivalry, particularly with an edge in starting pitching.
Left-hander Hyun Jin Ryu (9-5, 3.44 ERA) takes the mound for Toronto, who has been the far more reliable starter. This will be Ryu's second start of the season at Fenway Park. Admittedly, he got pounded in his first outing of the year against Boston (5 IP, 8 H, 4 ER). But in his latest appearance, Ryu absolutely dominated the Red Sox potent hitting lineup – tossing seven shutout innings while allowing just four hits on the way to an easy 8-0 victory.
Meanwhile, Eduardo Rodriguez has been remarkably unimpressive in his pair of outings against Toronto this year. Boston's starter is currently listed with a 5.78 ERA in his two starts against the Blue Jays (11 IP, 14 H).
I’ll take the Blue Jays money line here – priced at -105 at SPREADS.CA – as Rodriguez has been untrustworthy against Toronto this season. The betting total might also have some value at OVER 10.5 runs.
Recommendation: Solid play on Toronto -105. Smaller play on OVER 10.5 runs.