Why the Dallas Cowboys Will be a Team to Fade in 2022

NFL Jun 29, 2022

The Dallas Cowboys have been a badly-run sports organization since the 1990’s. This past offseason was no different. Glaring personnel mistakes and a regression to the mean makes this a very average football team.

The Dallas Cowboys may be "America's Team," but they've been one of the disappointing franchises in professional sports over the past quarter century.

Think about it.

Twenty-five years.  That's a long time.  In that span, the Cowboys have won just three playoff games.

THREE!

The Cincinnati Bengals won three playoff games last season alone, and didn't even win the Super Bowl.  The Cowboys haven't even made it to the NFC Championship game since the last century.  Their last appearance was in 1996.

That's embarrassing.

Of course, this means VALUE for sports gamblers and especially futures bettors who want to have action all season long on a season-win total.  Here's where we come in with some betting advice.

DALLAS COWBOYS 2022 SEASON WIN TOTAL – 10.5 WINS

In 2022, Dallas is listed at 10.5 wins at SPREADS.CA.  That means, if Dallas wins 11 games or more, the OVER wins.  If Dallas wins only 10 games (or fewer), the UNDER wins.

At POINTSPREADS.CA, we love the UNDER on the Dallas Cowboys regular-season win total.  We think they'll win 10 games or fewer.

Here are a few reasons, which were prompted by Teddy Covers and his pre-season research. Strong recommendation:  Follow Teddy Covers on Twitter at – @teddy_covers

SALARY CAP ISSUES – BAD PERSONAL MOVES

The Cowboys have been a badly-run sports organization since the 90’s.  This past offseason was no different.

Consider that Dallas hung on to the single most expensive running back in pro football, despite Zeke Elliott’s $18 million cap hit. That might make sense if the Cowboys could actually run the football effectively. But that hasn’t been the case in recent seasons, certainly not in terms of return-on-investment.

Elliot averaged just 4.5 yards per carry last year.  He averaged 4.2 YPC in 2020 — which are league average kinds of numbers.  Even the backup RB Tony Pollard averaged more than a full yard per carry better than Elliott last year...and in 2020...and in 2019 — all three years since he was drafted.  But look who's getting the big bucks.

Paying Elliot absurd money cost them gamebreaker WR Amari Cooper...or anchor offensive linemen La’el Collins...or OL Connor Williams...or LB/FS hybrids Keanu Neal and Domantae Kazee.  All those free agents left during this offseason. And the front office screwed up the Randy Gregory re-signing, angering the veteran by inserting language into the contract that was not agreed upon, leading to his departure. They went into the draft with clear needs on the offensive line, in the secondary, at WR , at LB and at DE. None of those needs were filled. No rookie is a sure thing.

Bad financial decisions, loss of key players, and a weak draft – that's reasons for concern if you're a Dallas fan or bettor.

DALLAS IS ALWAYS OVERVALUED BY BETTING MARKETS / REGRESSION TO THE MEAN

Dallas is a popular public team that enjoys star power.  But the personnel doesn't match the hype.  This team lacks quality on the field and off the field, woefully inadequate in depth on both sides of the ball.  If and when injuries happen, the Cowboys are in serious trouble.  Just remember what happened when the Cowboys lost QB Dak Prescott early in the 2020 season.  With the same personnel and an experienced backup, they finished 6-10.

Last year, the Cowboys won 12 games, and boasted the league’s highest scoring offense (31.4 ppg).  Dallas also fielded a defense that recorded the most takeaways in the NFL (34); finishing with an NFL-best +14 turnover margin. Every piece of that puzzle is likely to decline in 2022. That's called regression to the mean.  

Let’s also not forget that Dallas only beat two playoff teams all year (Philadelphia and New England, neither of whom was elite nor won a playoff game). This year, they’ve got a first place schedule to deal with (though it's deceptively easy since they play in the NFL's weakest division). They will face the Bucs, Rams, Bengals, Packers, Vikings, Colts, and Titans, as well as four games against the improved Eagles and Giants.

BAD COACHING AND A HORRIBLE FRONT OFFICE

Worn out retread head coach Mike McCarthy already looks like he can't wait to get out of Dallas.  He's already on the hot seat in his third year on the job — it’s Super Bowl or bust for a team that has no realistic shot at achieving their goal. They’re minus two starters on the offensive line, no longer a dominant unit or even a position of strength. In fact, the offensive line has major depth concerns; a thin unit with limited experience in their depth chart.

The turnover margin is very likely to regress — this defense is NOT primed to lead the league in turnovers created this year; not with their offseason departures. This offense, too, isn’t as good as it was a year ago — Dallas won’t lead the league in scoring in 2022. We don’t expect them to come close to the numbers posted in 2021.

Yes, Dallas won 12 games in a pathetic division last year, but they were 6-10 and 8-8 the two years before that – which makes for a .500 team since the start of 2020 with admittedly lots of talent at skill positions.  Even their previous division title in 2018 came via a 10-win season, not an 11 win season — this team can overachieve our expectations and still cash with an UNDER 10.5 wins.

OUR PROJECTION

Maybe, if some things go right, Dallas goes 9-8 or even 10-7, but that still gets us the money for us as the UNDER bettors.  Then, the Cowboys will do their customary check out in the first round of the playoffs.

The Dallas Cowboys will be a team to fade in 2022 in almost every way.

OPEN A NEW ACCOUNT AT SPREADS.CA TODAY FOR BONUSES AND OTHER FREEBIES, PLUS BOOSTED ODDS ON MANY WAGERS