Why We Like the Dolphins Plus the Points

NFL Sep 16, 2022

Dolphins +3.5 (-110) O 44.5 (-110) +150
Ravens -3.5 (-110) U 44.5 (-110) -185

(all odds according to Spreads.ca)


Both teams are coming off strong performances and relatively easy wins last week. In fact, both teams were equally impressive.

However, we're inclined to take the points with Miami this week.

One reason is their quality of competition. Miami defeated the better team (NWE) with the stronger QB. Meanwhile, Baltimore playing against a lowly NYJ team quarterbacked by J. Flacco basically amounts to getting a bye week.

Accordingly, we're backing the team that showed a bit more fight in its opener and beat a better team.  That's clearly the Dolphins.

One concern:

Miami has some injury worries, as three offensive tackles were limited in practice this week, and A. Jackson sat out with an ankle injury.

A bigger concern for the Ravens:

However, it's the Ravens' cluster injuries that are a much bigger concern and a reason to like Miami plus the points here.

Bad news for the Ravens -- Baltimore lost two starters due to *season-ending* injuries in Week 1.  This list includes CB K. Fuller tore an ACL, while LT J. James suffered an Achilles injury. If M. Peters remains sidelined, Baltimore could possibly miss *both* starting cornerbacks. That means Miami WRs T. Hill and J. Waddle could enjoy big days.

History says:

These two teams played each other last November. Miami won handily 22-10 and kept QB L. Jackson in check with 4 sacks and just 39 rushing yards.

This game should be closer and could end on a late FG.  That's the way it's lined with the Ravens laying a hook on a FG.

Hence, taking +3.5 appears to have some added value if you share the opinion these two teams match up approximately equal in talent.  Consider -1.5 for HFA, and the Ravens are actually laying -2 here.  We think Miami is equal to Baltimore in talent at this moment.

Our final pick:

Miami +3.5 (-110)

Update:  This week's full report with every game analyzed and picks for every matchup will be released on Saturday morning.