Will Golden State Warriors Validate the "Zig-Zag" Theory?

nba Jun 10, 2022

Here's why we're wagering on the "zig-zag" theory, which means taking Golden State +4 in Game 4 (but only if Steph Curry plays).

At first glance, the Golden State Warriors appear to be totally outclassed in these NBA Finals.

This team resembles nothing like the championship lineups we've seen from years past.  The Warriors have often looked soft, struggled badly on defence, often taken dumb shots, and flat out seem inferior to the more well-rounded Boston Celtics.  And that doesn't even begin to address Golden State's appalling two fourth-quarter meltdowns, which cost them Games 1 and 3.

In short, whether on paper or simply from what we've watched with our own eyes through three games of this year's championship series, it's very tough to justify making a wager on the Warriors, even when they're getting points.  

Also note that all three games have resulted in double digit blowouts, so far.

However, the "zig-zag" theory appears to be very real for both of these teams.

The theory goes that whenever a talented team loses, it gets extra motivated for the next game. The other side of the spectrum is that teams coming off blowout wins don't give quite the same extra effort in the next contest.

That leads us to lean heavily towards Golden State in Game 4.

Tip-off in Boston is at 9:00 pm EST.

Spreads.ca lists Boston as a 4-point favourite.  The betting total is 214.

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Prediction (powered by Pointspreads.ca):

We're wagering on the "zig-zag" theory which means taking Golden State +4.

In this year's playoffs, the Warriors are a perfect 5-0 coming off a loss. They've played far better with their backs to the wall, rather than when they're coming off a win.

Conversely, after winning a game in the last three playoff series, Boston is just 2-6 in the follow-up effort.

The NBA is a very tough sport to handicap sometimes, so we have to weigh emotion and motivation more heavily than usual.

This factor and history would appear to favour the Warriors in tonight's game to even the series at 2-2.  Here's to the zig-zag.

Game 3 Prediction:

Golden State Warriors – 108

Boston Celtics – 104

Note: We are expecting Steph Curry to play in Game 4, who has been hobbled with an ankle injury.  If he doesn't start, this game is a pass.