Will San Francisco Cover -4 vs. Dallas?

NFL Jan 22, 2023

Sun: 6:30 ET / 3:30 PT
Line: 49ers -4
Total: 46

We'll keep this short.  The Cowboys are notorious for playoff collapses, but they did shake the stigma of a pathetic 25-year history by finally winning a playoff road game last weekend. Now, the competition gets much tougher.

San Francisco won its last 11 games (9-2 ATS). The 49ers are also 9-1 ATS as a home favorite this season. The biggest surprise has been QB Brock Purdy, who is playing like the reincarnation of Montana and Young. He's a perfect 6-0 in games started and has thrown 2+ TD passes in each game. This is an intriguing matchup because you never know which Dallas team might show up. But because Dallas is getting +4, this becomes a very tough game to predict.

Accordingly, we will play two props:  

First, we like QB Dak Prescott OVER 249.5 passing yards.  Prescott has exceeded that number in 9 of his 11 starts since returning from injury (in one game, he was pulled in the second half in the meaningless finale at Washington; otherwise he goes 10/11).  Even in a blowout win last week where Prescott wasn't forced to pass late, he threw for 305.  Dallas could also have problems on the ground versus the 49ers' excellent defense, which likely means more passing attempts.

Second, in the other prop, we like the much-maligned Dallas kicker Brett Maher OVER 6.5 points.  We all know about Maher's four missed XPs last week.  But he's been solid all season long, and that malady of performance probably gives us some value (Gould's point total is 7.5 points).  Good fade opportunity to go against public overreaction to one game and an inexplicably awful game.  We also see Dallas getting yards, and moving the ball, but having problems in the red zone, which spells more field goals for the Cowboys.  Two FGs and one XP (13 points) are all we need to crack this number.

The Picks:

Prop:  Dak Prescott OVER 249.5 passing yards

Prop:  Brett Maher OVER 6.5 points (kicking)