Will the Bengals Continue to Roll and Cage the Ravens?

NFL Jan 15, 2023

Key Trend:  No team has been a better bet the last season and a half than Cincinnati. The Bengals are 20-4 ATS in their last 24 games, which is the hottest streak of any NFL team in that span.

Here's a look at the latest updated odds on this weekend's NFL playoff games according to Spreads.ca:

SUN: 8:15 ET / 5:15 PT
BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI (-6.5) (-9)
O/U: 43.5

GAME ANALYSIS:

Will QB Lamar Jackson (injured knee) play on Sunday, and even if he does, will it matter? Late week reports say no–he’s out. When the line moved from -6.5 to -9, that looks like solid confirmation. However, we don’t always trust the early injury reports and coaching pronouncements (recall some midseason shenanigans on this point that cost us money based on bad info).

The Bengals (12-4) beat the Ravens (10-7) easily by 11 points last week and are on an 8-1-1 ATS roll. Contrast this with the Ravens, which are stumbling into the playoffs with a woeful 2-5-1 ATS mark in their last 8 games.

Everyone knows the Baltimore offense is terrible with Tyler Huntley in the backup QB role. This likely means for the Ravens to win, the defense will need to come up with a huge game. Yes, that could happen. But it puts too much pressure on one unit to bet with confidence.

These two division rivals split their series. Jackson led the Ravens to a 19-17 win over the Bengals way back in Week 5. However, the Bengals got their revenge with a 27-16 win in Week 18 with Jackson on the bench with an injury. Now, here they are again just a week later.

No team has been a better bet the last season and a half than Cincinnati. The Bengals are 20-4 ATS in their last 24 games, which is the hottest streak of any NFL team in that span.

Even with the Ravens’ recent troubles, they are 18-4-1 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog.

Both of these teams have been great UNDER bets all season long. Baltimore was the NFL’s best UNDER team, going 12-5 to the UNDER, while Cincinnati was 9-6-1 to the UNDER this season.

THE PICK:

Most of the betting public will be on Cincy in this game, which is a testament to their hot streak. They’ve shaken off the “Super Bowl loser” stigma, which for many years has been a reliable fade wager.

The Bengals appear to be improving each week, whereas the Ravens — especially on offense — don’t look like they belong in the playoffs.

The Bengals were worth a wager at -6.5 and should have been hit then based on reports. Now that the line is up to -9, we’ve lost all the value and this is a pass. So, instead, we’ll tease this down to -3.

THE PROPS:

We're also playing OVER on two WR Chase props.  The Cincy receiver is Joe Burrow’s favorite target, and he’s likely to continue his success this week.  

The O/U on catches is 6.5 and we see Chase has exceeded that number in 8 straight starts — 8, 8, 7 10, 7, 8, 7, and 7, respectively.  

Yardage-wise, he’s listed at 75.5 and has exceeded that number in 6 of his last 8 starts, including three 100-yard games.  

Supposedly, the Baltimore defense is better than average, but last week vs. Ravens, Chase caught 8 balls for 86 yards.  So, with more on the line here in the playoffs, we can probably expect similar game planning and numbers.  

Weather should be above freezing with wind no factor.

Teaser: Cincinnati -3 / NY Giants +9 (-120)

Teaser:  Cincinnati -3 / Tampa Bay +8.5 (-120)

Player Prop:  Ja’Marr Chase Total Receptions OVER 6.5 (EVEN)

Player Prop:  Ja’Marr Chase Total Receiving Yards OVER 75.5 (-115)

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ALL ODDS ARE COURTESY OF SPREADS.CA