Week 10 of the CFL season kicks off on Thursday night as the unbeaten Winnipeg Blue Bombers host the Montreal Alouettes at IG Field. These teams are playing a back-to-back as they played in Montreal last week with the Blue Bombers winning (and covering) 35-20.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers (9-0) should clearly be sizable favourites this week hosting the vastly-inferior Montreal Alouettes (2-6). But should the defending Grey Cup champs really be laying so much as -11 points?
That's the big question heading in the CFL's week 10 kickoff game this Thursday when the undefeated West Division powerhouse takes on a struggling opponent, but one which remains very much involved the quirky postseason race given how weak the East Division teams have been performing this season. Montreal remains tied for second place in a wide open divisional race.
For the Alouttes to have any chance to pull off what would be a monumental upset in this game and the shocker of the CFL season, they'll have to make some major adjustments, and also do it quickly. These two teams faced off in Montreal last week with the Blue Bombers winning 35-20. So, coming off a 15-point beatdown, it's no wonder that Winnipeg is laying -11 in the back-to-back rematch.
Kickoff in Winnipeg takes place Thursday at 7:30 pm MDT.
At Spreads.ca, Canada's premier betting website, the pointspread opened up with the mighty Blue Bombers at -13 -- with the total listed at 48.5. Early money flooded in and pounded the underdog Als, thereby shortening the line to -12. As of today, it's dropped even further, down to -11. The O/U has remained steady at 48.5.
Prediction (powered by Pointspreads.ca):
Last week's final score was somewhat misleading. While the Blue Bombers seemed to easily cover the -6-point spread, the game was actually tied at 14-14 before Winnipeg scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Hence, the game was closer than the final score indicated, with the Bombers needing big plays from its offense, defense, and special teams to pull away late with the win and cover.
And another thing: Yes, Montreal is just 2-6 this season, but three of their losses were by a single point. The Als are more talented than the record suggests.
Moreover, Winnipeg often brings in a conservative game plan, which isn't always geared to running up big scores. That spells value with the dog.
Who knows how motivated the faves will be this week since they won by two TDs in the first matchup? Okay, we lost some value by not capturing the +13 early on with the underdog, but we also still think there's value in Montreal getting double digits at +11.
The Forecast: Let's call this one 29-20 in the Blue Bombers favour, which means Winnipeg stays undefeated but also fails to cover.